Possible pilot shortage raises safety concerns

A United Airlines airplane flies along it's landing path towards LaGuardia International Airport as the New York Mets host the Atlanta Braves during their Opening Day Game at Citi Field on April 5, 2012 in New York City. / Getty Images/Nick Laham

(AP) WASHINGTON - An industry forecast that nearly half a million new airline pilots will be needed worldwide over the next 20 years as airlines expand their fleets has raised safety concerns that airlines will hire lower caliber pilots as they struggle to fill slots.

Boeing, one of the world's largest makers of commercial jetliners, forecasts about 465,000 new pilots will be needed worldwide between now and 2031 as global economies expand and airlines take deliveries of tens of thousands of new commercial jetliners. The forecast includes 69,000 new pilots in the North America, mostly in the U.S. The greatest growth will be in the Asia-Pacific region, where an estimated 185,600 new pilots will be needed.

Likewise, Boeing predicts 601,000 new aircraft maintenance technicians will be needed over the same period, with greatest demand — 243,500 technicians — in the Asia-Pacific region. An estimated 92,500 new technicians will North America.

The rising global demand for airline pilots has raised concern among industry and government officials that there will be a global and a domestic pilot shortage.

"In many regions of the world, a pilot shortage is already here," the Boeing forecast said. "Asia Pacific in particular is experiencing delays and operational interruptions due to pilot scheduling constraints."

That's particularly true in China and India, industry officials said. Airlines based in Asia and the Middle East have been holding pilot job fairs in the U.S. and thousands of pilots laid off due to U.S. airline bankruptcies and mergers are now flying for foreign carriers.

"We have airlines around the world as they buy our airplanes and come to us on the training side of the house, saying `We're struggling to fill (pilot) seats. Can you help us?' " said Carl Davis, Boeing's chief of pilot services. Davis presented his company's forecast Thursday at a conference in Washington on pilot training hosted by the Air Line Pilots Association, the world's largest pilot union.

U.S. industry and government officials are also concerned that the rising global demand for pilots, combined with an anticipated wave in pilot retirements and tougher qualification standards for new pilots that kick-in next year, will create a domestic shortage as well.

"I'm concerned because it has safety implications," John Allen, the Federal Aviation Administration's director of flight services, told The Associated Press.

Allen said he wants to spur a discussion among industry, labor unions, and academia about a potential shortage that will "really look at this and address it, not to just sweep it under the rug ... Is this a problem? And, if it is a problem, how bad is it?"

He said he is fearful that if there is a shortage, airlines will hire pilots who are technically qualified but don't have the "right stuff."

"If the industry is stretched pretty thin ... that can result in someone getting into the system that maybe isn't really the right person to be a pilot. Not everybody is supposed to be a pilot," Allen said.

Officials for the Airlines for America and the International Air Transport Association didn't respond to a request for comment.

Lee Moak, president of the pilots union, said he doubts a pilot shortage will be felt in the U.S. for about three to five years. If U.S. airlines start hiring pilots in large numbers, he said, pilots now flying for foreign carriers will likely return home. There are currently about 90,000 airline pilots in the U.S. and Canada.

"Globally is another matter," Moak said.

Industry and government officials anticipate a wave of pilot retirements at U.S. airlines beginning this year. Five years ago, the FAA raised the mandatory retirement age for pilots from 60 to 65. The fifth anniversary of that decision is Dec. 13. Pilots who were age 60 on that date five years ago are reaching the age where they have to retire.

Also, FAA regulations created in response to an aviation safety law passed by Congress two years ago will raise the experience threshold required to be an airline first officer from the current 250 hours of flying time to 1,500 hours, the same level as required of captains. That's expected to make it harder for airlines to find qualified new applicants.

At the same time, the pool of military-trained pilots that airlines have relied upon in the past has largely dried up as more pilots choose to remain in the military rather than seek airline careers, industry officials said. That means airlines have had to rely on new hires that have accumulated their experience at flight schools and, later, working as flight instructors at local airports and the flight schools.

"The cost of getting into flying is very expensive," Davis said. "When I talk to college students, if they're coming out of a 4-year collegiate (aviation) program most of them are $150,000 -to- $160,000 in debt. And that only gives them the qualifications to go be a flight instructor. If you're making $20,000 a year as a flight instructor you're lucky."

[ExpatPilot]

I am currently an American pilot who decided to take the advantage of opportunity in China. Truth be told, the majority of the US Domestic flights are now subcontracted to regional airlines. Company's such as Skywest, Republic or Pinnacle are awarded contracts based on the lowest cost. Much of this was made very public after the Colgan crash in Buffalo New York.

This business model is only profitable if the regional airlines can maintain their cost down to a minimum since flights are flown on a fixed fee basis. IE, keeping pilots, flight attendants and mechanical experts paid low as possible. For the the first four years of my careers I never broke $30,000, and my starting pay at a regional was approximately $18500 in 2004 dollars. Mind you this is after four years in college and flight school debt as well (Flight School alone can now range from $25,000-$80,000). Advancement in the regionals has crawled to a snails pace. I have many friends who are still First Officers making barely enough money to get by with no sight of upgrading to Captain anytime soon.

The shortage is a direct result of cost cutting and the secret is out. Banks aren't exactly excited about loaning that much money for college and flight training for risk of default. Students aren't willing to shell out the money for a very poor return on investment as well as difficult lifestyle away from family.

As for me, I was offered a very attractive chance to leave the United States and fly with a growing Chinese Airline where time off is greater, the pay is more than triple what is in the US. Finally, and oddly enough there is a lack of a labor management division between the pilots and the company. We are valued here, and if the US airlines do not make changes the shortage will effect the flying public and our economy.

[john92021]

not to few pilots, too many unnecessary flights.

[Dreadnut]

Better, more sophisticated computers, with an operator paid at $8.25 an hour will help solve this. The flight deck controls would be like a McDonalds cash register, with destination airports indicated by big, bold, colorful buttons.

[venusvegasvada]

The reason their is a shortage of pilots and technicians is that the pay scales are too low.

Many people in the business tell relatives and friends to seek employment elsewhere.

You reap what you sow. By the way, has anyone done a study on what the impact of adding "tens of thousands" of new jetliners will have on the environment?

Are there no limitations on how much we can expand our global fleets and burn logarithmically increasing quantities of fossil fuels?

[Htos1]

Understand that acting "white" is being stealth criminalized.You can tell when someone is endangering the public by professionalism,exceptionalism,and performance of duty.That's racist to the poltical class.

[nohater]

how about drone flights carrying passengers? that aside, perhaps less flights would help fight pollution, global warming? they could cut back on domestic flights. the only winners will be pilots commanding higher salaries because they will be in demand.

[Vet60]

Raise the retirement age to 67 or 70. If you can pass the medical then you shold be able to work as a pilot.

[Mathion]

I don't expect the expansion of our economy and ability to sustain it to be that great between now and 2061 when we run out of oil.

I expect that by 2031, with the lack of oil and the lack of finding sustainable alternative fuels, it will be too expensive for most people to fly for vacations or family emergencies, leaving business class and the wealthy the main fliers. That should pretty much take care of the pilot shortage.