Romney "playing defense" with own voting group

(CBS News) In the key election swing state of Florida, nearly one out of three voters is over 65.

A poll out Wednesday shows a big shift in that group toward the president. A month ago, President Obama trailed GOP challenger Mitt Romney among seniors by 13 points. In a new poll, Mr. Obama is ahead by four percentage points, leading 51 percent to 47 percent. That is a swing of 17 points in one month.

The statisticians will remind us polls are just a snapshot and not predictive of what will happen, but it does give us an indication of the underlying currents in the race.

Barack Obama lost the senior vote to John McCain in Florida by eight points in 2008. So for the president to be doing well in the traditional Republican voting block is a danger sign for Romney.

Strategists for both parties in Florida agree Mr. Obama is ahead in the state and the battle over Medicare is helping make inroads with seniors.

The president is also doing better with blue collar white voters in Ohio and is doing better on the economy.

It's why Mitt Romney is having to play defense with his own voting group. The time he has to spend time shoring them up is time he's not spending getting swing voters.

Polls that are taken about this point in September sometimes predict the winner and sometimes they don't.

In 2008, polls had Obama over McCain at about this point, but in the year 2000, we had Gore over Bush about this point.

If we go all the way back to 1952, Eisenhower's first election, the vast majority of the time the candidate who was ahead in the polls six weeks out ended up winning in the end.

However, Presidents John Kennedy, Ronald Reagan and George W. Bush were all tied or behind at this point, and they pulled it out in the end.

[sjc_1]

Like Bill Clinton said "do the arithmetic". If you lose the senior vote by 8% you lost 8% of 40 million. If you get the 18-34 year old crowd, you have 30% of 60 million.

It does not take a math major to figure out that the GOP is running out of old while people. The future is what it is going to be, not recognizing that is a formula for failure.

[skeezix06]

The fact that he's playing defense with his own voting block indicates that he's a candidate with serious problems. For me, it's Bain and the fact that Bain is symbolic of outsourcing; something that has affected many of us badly. I could go on to the folly of disassembling the American blue collar and white collar job base and not coincidentally their own customer base while building non-customer wages in other countries and building the power base in a country whose political beliefs are in direct opposition to our own and the inevitable consequences of that but I won't.

I'll just say Romney was a poor choice and the GOP's continual catering to the extremists way out on the fringe and the Tea Party is going to end badly if they don't act soon.

[Bunch1243]

23 million Americans unemployed and underemployed. 45 million Americans on food stamps. 76 million Americans taking Social Security Disability benefits. Median income down 8.2% since 2009. Economy still slow and slowing more. 16 trillion national debt, 6 trillion added by President Obama. Why would any thinking American vote for this record??? Does anyone actually think President Obama has a plan to fix this stuff? If he has a plan, why hasn't he implemented it? I know, Repubs blocked it all.......except that is bull puckey. No budget in 3 years is Dems fault, not Repubs. Spending is both parties fault. But, President Obama has no solution, none. If he had, he would be pumping it on the campaign trail. All he does is try to make Romney look bad. Obama is a failure, just like Jimmy Carter. Time to hope for change to Romney.

[sweetcakesmaria]

I suppose Romney is full of solutions. If he has any solutions, he's not revealing what they are. His favorite thing to say is just trust me and when i'm President, i'll work with Congress on a jobs bill. Well I'm not foolish enough to trust him just on his word. I want to hear solutions but apparently he doesn't have any. The job market has steadily improved under Obama and could be so much better with just a little help from Congress. As far as making Romney look bad, you must have had your head under sand the past few weeks if you think Romney need someone else to make him look bad. Romney is a walking disaster, every wound that he has was self inflicted.

[skeezix06]

Actually, hindsight shows Jimmy Carter was right and if we'd continued to work to end our dependence on oil back then we'd probably be in much better shape right now. And finally, of all the presidents we've had, Jimmy Carter was the one who has picked up a hammer and gone to work with them at Habitat for Humanity. He lives what he talks.

[mississippigirl2012]

Sad...You allow Fox News to think for you. Seniors are voting their interest SSI and Medicare which Romney would like to get rid of.

[kawefjkasekludnasebf]

It seems inconceivable that anyone with a high school education would consider voting for someone so dense that he doesn't understand why airliner windows don't open. Romney makes Bush look intelligent by comparison. Idiocracy, here we come.

[MidRoadAlone]

God help us the stupid people that post on here! The window comment was a joke! Do you not have any inkling of wry humor? Did you think Obama was really asking for that kids birth certificate in Florida? Grow up. I am sick of the liberal trash on this site - never a constructive comment - the conservatives never seem to be as bad - and I look at both.

[dj_chi]

MidRoad - You don't think much of the "you didn't build that" comments even though the whole thing was debunked? You don't think it's a big deal that the GOP built a whole convention around a lie??? You don't think the public sees that overblown lie as proof that the GOP are dishonest at their core? Then you don't understand why Willard's backsliding in the polls.

[honestabe8]

"I am sick of the liberal trash on this site"

Yet you keep on coming here to look

[BeanzyRB]

Of course many of the libs think it's a done deal with Obama....lol Keep listening to this bias news media and see your fake poll numbers. Romney is actually gaining more and more each day, once people actually listen to what he is about. Sure, we could put both Romney and Obama side by side and pick out all the bad stuff, but what many are now seeing, is that Obama's campaign with his ads are mostly inaccurate and at times, full blown lies. He even has every news channel that boosts Obama's presence, yet Romney is right there in the polls. So, take away the bias media and give the same air-time to Romney, and you would see a landslide in Romney's numbers.

I haven't a clue why many of you see Obama as this successful president. Do you not remember the promises of doing things in his first term, and if he couldn't, he would leave? His plans have failed the USA, starting with Green Energy to JOBS.

For those who have jobs, I guess it doesn't matter to you that millions do not. Nothing less than compassion-less... I hope your children are well cared for and that they get a chance to go to college, and you will supply a job for them because another 4 years of Obama, picking up plastic bottles will start looking good. Imagine paying for a degree, and then having to go through trash bins to survive?

Obama has failed and we need to move on to try and correct our nation as he just didn't live up to the hype......

[dj_chi]

Conservative polls have Obama ahead too. Do you think they're biased in Obama's favor too?

[Jaylah54200]

Reminds me of that lovely saying I saw on a T-shirt once:

"I must catch up with the others, for I am their leader."

[BrianM503]

Why Obama is still campaigning in Ohio is simple to explain - although I doubt a Republican will understand.
If Obama wins Ohio Romney is beaten - so it is very worth while to make sure that Romney does not gain another vote there. Simple.

[Art_V]

Ryan! Ryan! Ryan!

oops.

Stench - Ryan! Stench - Ryan! Stench - Ryan!

[Art_V]

Ryan! Ryan! Ryan!

oops.

Stench - Ryan! Stench - Ryan! Stench - Ryan!

[boomchuck1]

As for the 2000 campaign, the polls were right. Gore did win. Bush stole the election.

[albertj829]

Along with his friends on the Supreme Court.