LAPD computer program prevents crime by predicting it

(CBS News) LOS ANGELES - The Los Angeles Police Department has gone on an offensive to prevent crime.

Its latest weapon is a program that can actually predict where crimes will happen. CBS justice correspondent Bob Orr has a first look at the results.

In the Foothill Division, north of downtown Los Angeles, police are patrolling largely working class neighborhoods with specially-marked maps.

The small red squares are "hot spots" where computers project where property crimes are most likely.

It's called "Predictive Policing" a program which Capt. Sean Malinowski says puts officers on the scene before crimes occur.

"Sixty-five percent of our crimes are burglary, grand theft auto and burglary from a motor vehicle" Malinowski said. "And that's what these boxes represent."

The crime prediction boxes come from the same kind of mathematical calculation used to predict earthquakes and aftershocks.

By analyzing the times, dates, and places of recent crimes computers project "hot spots" for burglaries, break-ins, and car thefts.

Los Angeles Police Chief Charlie Beck says increasing police patrols inside those boxes denies criminals opportunity.

"The real measure of this is not how many people you catch it is how much crime you prevent," said Beck. "I love catching people -- it's what I live for -- but what I'd rather do is live in a place and work in a place where crime didn't happen."

Chief Beck, a 35-year veteran and the father of two LAPD officers, has faced some skepticism in selling the "predictive" concept.

Orr asked Beck whether claims of a computer program predicting future crimes is something beyond belief, especially for would-be criminals on the street.

"Well of course, that's the nature of human beings" Beck said. "Everybody thinks they do their profession as well as it can be done and so they don't need any help. If this old street cop can change the way that he thinks about these things, then I know my kids can do the same."

The LAPD began testing the Predictive Policing model in the Foothill Division in November. And the early results are encouraging. Burglaries are down 33 percent and violent crime is also down 21 percent.

That success will allow Beck to expand the program to other parts of the city and leverage limited resources.

"I'm not going to get more money, I'm not going to get more cops" Beck said. "But, I have to be better at using what I have and that is what Predictive Policing is about."

It's also about driving the crime rate lower. Crime in the area has dropped nine straight years and with these small red boxes, Los Angeles is aiming for 10.

[appleton54]

Every few years people change in specific units in LAPD. They forget or do not exchange information, no history of ideas and projects completed. That idea has been used since 1994. It started with FASTRAC then COMPSTAT. Real time analysis is nothing new. The crime hotspots that plagued the city in 1979 are the same that plaque the city today. Look at RDs in Southwest, Newton, Rampart, 77th and S/E. Oh I forgot this project is in the Valley. The numbers may have decreased, but the locations are the same.

[bradkt1]

This has nothing to do with the LAPD trying to become the "thought police." The CBS headline is misleading. This computer program that the LAPD is using compilies crime statistics that show where the property crime rates are highest in the city. Guess what? These are the poorest and gang-infested areas in low income communities. These criminals are not rocket scientists. They do their dirt where they live and most of their property crimes are crimes of opportunity. What is happening here is that this data is gathered quickly, input into a computer and the result shows the specific street blocks where the most crimes occur...

...and that's where the LAPD concentrates the patrol cops. It's amart policing....not thought policing.

[1stlttightwad]

Wonder if there is a correaltion with ethnic populations in those red boxes..Oops, here comes a lawsuit for profiling..Ya gotta go where the crimes are and have been.

[one4gipper]

But, where is Captain John Anderton? There has to be a Minority Report! I wasn't going to do it officer, I swear.

[askagain]

Trying to predict crime makes sense. Forty years ago, I moved to a town of 25,000 people. A police officer told me that when something goes down, there were ten families the police looked at first. He said a majority of the crimes were committed by members of those 10 families or someone from those families often had information about the crimes. It is no secret that each community has neighborhoods known for crime. If using computers to predict crimes work, it is another tool the police have.

[rwsmith29456]

I don't know how this is going to work, but if it does, I'm all for it.

[julianpenrod]

Just another case of someone high up in govenment selkling junk to the government from a crooked crony, on the taxpayers' dime. The program "predicts' where crime is likely, police go and make an appearance, and that appearance causes the crime not to happen. In what way is it different from a piece of garbage software "predicting" something that wasn't gouing to happen, the police go there even though they wouldn't be needed, what wasn't gong to happen doesn't happen and the crooks selling thre software say that "proves" it "works"! It is at best an iffy thing to purchase a product on the basis of what won't happen. It's like the New World Order claiming Muslims want to take over the U.S., that gigantic military attacks abroad and massive security at home will prevent it. Then, when attacks that weren't gong to occur don't occur, the crooks take crtedit for it. Of course, NWO quislings will say September 11 is "proof" the Muslims want to attack the U.S., but even simple "attacks" since then all failed and September 11 itself has all the earmarks of a fraud. The New World Order fabricated the events of September 11 to give their shills something to point to as "proof" Muslims want to coinquer America.

[Bojax39]

I agree. Police know the criminal hotspots in their town already. Increased deployment to these areas on the say of a computer program is really not needed. After all, police tend to patrol high crime areas more frequently to begin with as a matter of common sense.

[ludvig1-2009]

Yeah I suppose our town has that too. The idiots wearing the badges in this town call bicycle riders SOB's (Scum on bicycles). They also put an article in the paper saying "If you see bicycle riders in your neighborhood, call the cops." I started being harassed by those bums when my doctor told me to lose weight or get diabetes so I started walking and riding a bicycle. Picture taken twice riding a bicycle. Decoy car placed in my walking path. Senile volunteer hiding behind a truck while I walk laps thinking I'm going to steal something from an open garage door. A cop trying to run me down in a crosswalk. Another Senile dropping a bag labeled "Medical" perfectly centered on my driveway and hiding a block down the street. Yeah we've got that stupid retarded idiot program here in Northern California too. Retired Nuclear Engineer and 14 gallon blood donor.

[Bojax39]

Sounds like you live in the Twilight Zone.

[Wookiee-1138]

So is this a Philip K. Dick or a William Gibson scenario?

Either way, there's no way this project will work, but still makes this exciting time to be alive.

[Bojax39]

Chinese curse: "May you live in interesting times"

You could exchange the word "interesting" for "exciting" and get the same meaning. :-)