May 10, 2009 9:08 PM
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The Red Sox' Stat Man And The Numbers Game
"His reputation had preceded him so we knew we were getting a guy who was unusual. And I thought it was a giant step forward," Lucchino says.
"The truth is, Morley, this is a very sophisticated business these days. And it's very competitive. And I think when Larry and I first came into the business, the general manager relied fairly much on gut instincts. And I think that what we've done is we've taken a much more systematic approach, which really comes from Bill," Werner adds.
James sees his job as being the voice of cold reason based on hard evidence.
Example: Fenway Park and its infamous left field wall, the "Green Monster." Fenway was legendary as a right-handed hitters' park. But analysis showed it actually favored left-handed hitters, and the Sox line-up has been lefty-heavy ever since.
Red Sox General Manager Theo Epstein says Bill James is the staff contrarian. "I know with Bill that I'm always gonna get a unique perspective. 'Cause he I think he does see the game from a different vantage point than most anyone else," Epstein says. "His basic questions about the game, I think, have allowed us to think more critically about the best way to develop players. Even if he doesn't have the answers, he always has the questions."
Neither the Red Sox nor James will reveal specific decisions based on James' input, but it is widely accepted that it was James who urged them to sign a jolly giant named David Ortiz.
But James refuses to take full credit for hiring Ortiz, nicknamed "Big Papi."
"Everybody was in favor of signing David Ortiz. I liked him because of his numbers. The scouts liked him because of his swing. Some people liked him because they knew he was a positive guy in the clubhouse," James says.
"Were there any people who said no?" Safer asks.
"Yes, there was. There was a guy. Yeah," James says.
Asked if that guy is still with the club, James says, "I think he is. But I haven't seen him around the office lately."
And what does the guru think about baseball generally? Best player of all? St. Louis Cardinal's first baseman Albert Pujols. Most underrated? Philadelphia Phillies second baseman Chase Utley.
And if he could have anyone on his team?
"David Wright," James says.
Asked why, James tells Safer, "Because he does everything I like and he's very young."
And age is just about the most important number of all to Bill James. "A player's best years are 25 to 29. That was true when I was a kid, and it's still true now," he says.
Many believe that James-ian theory was behind the Red Sox decision to not re-sign hugely popular but aging stars Johnny Damon and Pedro Martinez, a decision that seems to have paid off for the Red Sox.
But while Red Sox manager Terry Francona says James is an integral part of the Red Sox, you can't always play strictly by the numbers. "This game's played by people. And, you know, I mean, certainly knowing the numbers, and I care about 'em, and it's important. But people play the game, and I never try to lose sight of that," Francona says.
Copyright 2009 CBS. All rights reserved. "The truth is, Morley, this is a very sophisticated business these days. And it's very competitive. And I think when Larry and I first came into the business, the general manager relied fairly much on gut instincts. And I think that what we've done is we've taken a much more systematic approach, which really comes from Bill," Werner adds.
James sees his job as being the voice of cold reason based on hard evidence.
Example: Fenway Park and its infamous left field wall, the "Green Monster." Fenway was legendary as a right-handed hitters' park. But analysis showed it actually favored left-handed hitters, and the Sox line-up has been lefty-heavy ever since.
Red Sox General Manager Theo Epstein says Bill James is the staff contrarian. "I know with Bill that I'm always gonna get a unique perspective. 'Cause he I think he does see the game from a different vantage point than most anyone else," Epstein says. "His basic questions about the game, I think, have allowed us to think more critically about the best way to develop players. Even if he doesn't have the answers, he always has the questions."
Neither the Red Sox nor James will reveal specific decisions based on James' input, but it is widely accepted that it was James who urged them to sign a jolly giant named David Ortiz.
But James refuses to take full credit for hiring Ortiz, nicknamed "Big Papi."
"Everybody was in favor of signing David Ortiz. I liked him because of his numbers. The scouts liked him because of his swing. Some people liked him because they knew he was a positive guy in the clubhouse," James says.
"Were there any people who said no?" Safer asks.
"Yes, there was. There was a guy. Yeah," James says.
Asked if that guy is still with the club, James says, "I think he is. But I haven't seen him around the office lately."
And what does the guru think about baseball generally? Best player of all? St. Louis Cardinal's first baseman Albert Pujols. Most underrated? Philadelphia Phillies second baseman Chase Utley.
And if he could have anyone on his team?
"David Wright," James says.
Asked why, James tells Safer, "Because he does everything I like and he's very young."
And age is just about the most important number of all to Bill James. "A player's best years are 25 to 29. That was true when I was a kid, and it's still true now," he says.
Many believe that James-ian theory was behind the Red Sox decision to not re-sign hugely popular but aging stars Johnny Damon and Pedro Martinez, a decision that seems to have paid off for the Red Sox.
But while Red Sox manager Terry Francona says James is an integral part of the Red Sox, you can't always play strictly by the numbers. "This game's played by people. And, you know, I mean, certainly knowing the numbers, and I care about 'em, and it's important. But people play the game, and I never try to lose sight of that," Francona says.
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