Wisconsin Senate Election: Russ Feingold (D) vs. Ron Johnson (R)

CBS NEWS RATING: TOSS UP

Democrat Russ Feingold (at left in the picture) is facing a challenge from political outsider and self-funder Ron Johnson. While Feingold still receives generally favorable ratings from his constituents, the unfriendly political environment for Democrats makes this seat vulnerable.

Republican Johnson is labeling Feingold a career politician. As owner of an Oshkosh-based plastics manufacturer, Johnson says he has actually created jobs in Wisconsin. Johnson has called the stimulus bill a failure and has attacked Feingold's support for it. Johnson also opposes the health care bill calling it "the greatest assault on our freedom in my lifetime" and has vowed to help repeal it.

Feingold is trying to emphasize his independent streak: he did not vote for the bailout of financial institutions in 2008 nor did he support the Wall Street reforms enacted earlier this year - he said the Wall Street reforms did not go far enough. Feingold's ads have stressed the notion that Feingold has been working for the people of Wisconsin rather than corporations.

Democrats have gone after Johnson for defending the oil company, BP, while holding stock in the company. In a debate with his primary opponent, Johnson criticized the government for forcing BP to set up a compensation fund for victims, saying the government "circumvent(ed) the rule of law." Johnson has argued that BP should be held accountable but the administration should have let a court decide damages.

Regarding Johnson's affiliation with the Tea Party, according to the Wisconsin State Journal, Johnson's campaign manager says the candidate has spoken at two Tea Party events and that Johnson has reached out to the Tea Party and they have reached out to him, "but he has always made it a point to correct any perception that he is somehow a Tea Party candidate."

Feingold will need to turn out the vote in the traditional Democratic Dane County, home to Madison. In his last election in 2004, Feingold captured 72% of the vote in Dane, and Mr. Obama won the county with 73%. He'll also need to drum up votes in urban Milwaukee.

For Johnson, he'll need to do well in Brown County (home to Green Bay). John McCain lost to Mr. Obama in Brown, but President Bush won this county by 10 points in 2004. Johnson will also look to do well in Waukesha County, a large suburban county surrounding Milwaukee. McCain won there with 62% of the vote.

So far, Feingold has been able to run even with Johnson when it comes to fundraising but Johnson has deep pockets and as of late August had spent more than $4 million of his own money. The last time Wisconsin elected a Republican to the Senate was in 1986 when Bob Kasten was re-elected to a second term. In 1992, Kasten was defeated by Democrat Russ Feingold.

See all CBS News Election 2010 Race Ratings

- Profile Updated October 14. Prepared by Jennifer De Pinto and Nick Dietz of CBS News' Election & Survey Unit.

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