Delta-Northwest Merger Far From Being A Done Deal

I've had a few people ask me why I didn't write anything about the fact that Delta and Northwest had voted to approve their merger. Should be big news, right? Sort of, but the really big news will come when the Department of Justice approves the deal.

Yes, last week, more than 98% of Northwest shares and 99% of Delta shares were voted in favor of the deal. That overwhelming support wasn't entirely surprising, and really, there wasn't much doubt at all that this would be approved by the shareholders. So, it's not really a big news event.

The only really big hurdle left is the U.S. government. The feds are looking closely at this to see whether the deal is anti-competitive. The Europeans already approved the deal, but that's not a surprise. They had already approved an antitrust exemption between the carriers for European routes so this isn't much different for them. But in the US, it's not as clear that it'll pass.

The good news for the airline is that the approval or denial should come by the end of the year. And there is still a business-friendly government in charge at least until January. So, the chances for approval are probably higher than they would be if Barack Obama were to get elected. But it's still not guaranteed that it will happen.

If I had to bet, I'd say things look good for the DOJ approval, but we'll have to wait and see to be sure. And once that news comes out, then I'll certainly be writing about it.