Pure Horserace: That Other '08 Contest
Most coverage of the 2008 elections to this point has focused on the race for president, and justifiably so — the race heated up earlier than in the past and is the most wide-open contest in generations. But the race for control of Congress, which will be just as important in deciding what direction the country goes after President Bush leaves office, is starting to develop a narrative of its own.
Unfortunately for Republicans, that narrative appears to be running against them, at least for the moment — a point highlighted on Thursday, when Arizona Rep. Rick Renzi announced he would not seek re-election in his expansive district. Renzi has been plagued by a scandal that emerged just before he was elected to a third term in 2006, revolving around a federal investigation into his business dealings.
Renzi's retirement announcement is the fifth so far among House Republicans. Others are former Speaker Dennis Hastert and Ray LaHood, both of Illinois, Deborah Pryce of Ohio and Chip Pickering of Mississippi. Of those retirements, three of them — Renzi's, Lahood's and Pryce's — are expected to result in competitive open seat races. Democrats even have their eyes on Hastert's seat, though their prospects in that contest are not as bright.
Retirements have always represented a good opportunity for the opposing party. In fact, a batch of Democratic retirements is credited with helping Republicans take over the House in 1994. Democrats are also looking at several seats that they came close to winning in 2006, when a wave of voter dissatisfaction over Iraq and several corruption scandals swept the party into power.
The problem, for Democrats, is that "waves" always subside. Voters in Republican districts may not be as eager to send a Democrat to Washington if control of Congress isn't going to change. Independent voters may be less eager to back a Democrat after seeing Congress fail to force a withdrawal from Iraq. Also, some of the Democratic victories in 2006, such as those in districts once represented by Tom DeLay and Mark Foley, can be directly attributed to personal scandals that are no longer a factor, allowing a natural voter preference for the GOP to take over.
But while the Democrats' House majority may be reduced, it appears unlikely to go away. Voters are not satisfied with the Democratic Congress, but polls indicate they aren't keen on returning Republicans to power. The House Democrats' fundraising arm has so far dominated its GOP counterpart, and history shows that House majorities tend to stick around for at least a few election cycles.
The battle for the Senate is a different animal, but the math also favors Democrats. Republicans have to defend 22 seats, compared with 12 for the Democrats. Several GOP moderates have been targeted, and a hotly contested open-seat fight is expected in Colorado and, if incumbent Republican John Warner retires, in Virginia. Again, party fundraising here favors Democrats.
The X factor in this, which was not present in 2006, is the presidential race. A good candidate can affect voter turnout to the point that it alters the results of contests further down the ticket, particularly for the House and Senate. But the current situation suggests that, whoever the next president is, he or she will be negotiating with Democrats when it comes time to enact the platform that got them elected. — David Miller
Clinton's Plan Is Coming: Hillary Clinton's failed effort to overhaul the nation's health care system in her husband's first term has left her permanently associated with that issue. But she is the only one of the top Democratic hopefuls to not release a detailed proposal for expanding health coverage — though it looks like that's going to change soon.
At a campaign event in Lebanon, N.H., on Thursday, Clinton said she would outline a universal health care plan next month, according to the — David MillerNo Plan? No Problem — For Some Voters: Enough about Hillary Clinton's health care plan — have you heard about Fred Thompson's? Apparently, 29 percent of Nevada voters have, despite no evidence that the non-candidate has offered even a hint of such a proposal. This according to James Pindell at The Boston Globe's Primary Source blog.
The poll was conducted by the bipartisan Divided We Fail campaign, which seeks to highlight health care and financial security issues in the upcoming election. Voters in other states also said they knew about the non-existent Thompson plan, including 15 percent of New Hampshire voters and 18 percent of Iowa voters — both states are known for having a well-educated electorate.
If that many people can say they're familiar with a candidate's health care plan without the candidate even saying anything, perhaps Clinton has little to fear in holding off for so long in offering details about her proposal. — David Miller
See What We Mean? We reported Wednesday on an Iowa poll that showed Hillary Clinton leading in Iowa. But we also mentioned that polling in caucus states is unreliable, especially this far out from the election. One day later, here's the proof: A Strategic Vision poll shows the race as a statistical three-way tie between Clinton, Obama and Edwards.
We have no intention of reporting on the results of every poll out of Iowa or any other state, but we just couldn't pass up the opportunity to illustrate a point about relying on such surveys. — David Miller
Editor's note: Pure Horserace is a daily update of political news as interpreted by the political observers at CBSNews.com. Click here to sign up for the e-mail version.
By David Miller