Numbers Expose Candidates' Weaknesses

NASHUA, N.H. — The country’s first presidential primary held two surprises, according to exit polls.

Democratic women surged behind Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton and revived the candidacy of the country’s first viable female presidential candidate.

Sen. John McCain owes his victory as much to the Republican faithful as to independents.

Thus New Hampshire women and Republicans interrupted the Iowa momentum of Sen. Barack Obama and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee.

Neither winner of the Hawkeye State’s caucuses was able to repeat in New Hampshire.

A historic half million voters came out to the polls in New Hampshire on Tuesday.

Iowa also had a record number of voters turn out. Both states saw unseasonably good weather on Election Day. But the diversity of this race, with no incumbent running and a strong black candidate and a strong female candidate, also played a role.

Women were 57 percent of Democratic voters Tuesday night, and Clinton beat Obama by 12 points among them. 

The New York senator won single women with no children — about four in 10 Democratic voters — by a stunning 18 points. Clinton also won married women by 13 points, and mothers by 20 points.

Obama had defeated Clinton among women in Iowa last week, dampening her electoral hopes.

But in New Hampshire they propelled her comeback.

Clinton spent the week here answering far more questions with voters than she did in Iowa, and she opened up emotionally in the days before the primary. But the win also testified to the Clinton campaign’s long, strategic focus on women in New Hampshire, which accomplished its aim of serving as a firewall following the Iowa loss.

Polls prior to Tuesday’s vote indicated Obama would win New Hampshire by double digits.

Clinton’s win testifies to the success of her get-out-the-vote operation, which focused on women. For example, on Monday night, Clinton adviser Ann Lewis made a dramatic plea to the campaign’s immense e-mail list of women.

Titled a “personal note,” Lewis’ e-mail urged women to come out for Clinton because her record of “standing up and fighting for women” was “better” than those of all other candidates in the race.

Equal numbers of women turned out in Iowa and New Hampshire this year. But as a percentage of the vote, female turnout in New Hampshire was lower than the proportion of women who voted in the 2000 primary.

Iowa and Mississippi remain the only states never to have elected a woman to Congress or as governor. That stands in stark contrast with New Hampshire, where women hold prominent elected offices. 

Obama did win men by 11 points, echoing his Iowa results, but it wasn’t enough to overcome Clinton’s female support.

The Illinois senator also won independent voters by about 8 points. But Clinton won registered Democrats by about the same margin.

More Democrats than independents voted, 54 percent to 44 percent.

One key segment of Obama’s victory margin in Iowa, youth, did not turn out in New Hampshire as they did in Iowa.

Seventeen percent of 18- to 29-year-olds voted in the Democratic contest in New Hampshire, a proportion similar to the 2000 and 2004 general elections and about 5 percent fewer than in the Iowa caucuses.

McCain won Republican men and women. He overcame the unpopularity of his position on immigration by emphasizing his character, experience and capacity to handle national security issues.

McCain swept every income and age bracket. Moderates and liberal Republicans rallied to the Arizona senator. The less partisan GOP voters make up 45 percent of the Republican electorate and they backed McCain by about a 2-1 ratio over former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney.

Romney placed second despite winning conservative voters, more than half of the Republican electorate, by 8 points.

Despite McCain’s victory, almost unimaginabe last summer when his campaign was nearly out of funds, the exit poll results portend both good and bad for his campaign’s future.

McCain did substantively worse with independents compared with 2000. Yet he showed he could win Republican votes.

In 2000, McCain lost New Hampshire Republicans to George W. Bush but won independents by a 3-1 ratio. Unlike New Hampshire, most primary contests do not allow independents to vote.

That McCain narrowly won Republicans Tuesday night should confirm his go-ahead strategy.

Yet the Arizona senator won only 40 percent of independents Tuesday night, defeating Romney by only 13 points among that group.

In 2000, McCain won nearly twice that proportion of independent voters and by a far larger margin. The one-time maverick now seems better-placed to attract the party faithful.

In a disappointment for Huckabee, McCain won weekly churchgoers by an 8-point margin over the former Arkansas governor. Huckabee won the Iowa caucuses last week based on support from social conservatives.

While New Hampshire is a significantly less religious state than Iowa, weekly church attendance remains the most accurate measure of a candidate’s support among religious voters.

More than six in 10 Republican voters said they cared most about candidates’ experience and that their choice “says what he believes.” Those voters supported McCain.

Romney dominated among GOP voters who thought illegal immigration was the most important issue. But that bloc only made up 23 percent of Republicans.

By double-digit margins, McCain won those who voted on the economy, the war in Iraq and terrorism.

The exit poll, conducted by a consortium of five television networks and The Associated Press, found that 55 percent of Democrats said the capacity to bring about “needed change” was the “deciding” factor behind their votes. Obama won those voters by about 30 percentage points.

Half of Democratic voters felt Obama could unite the country. Only 28 percent said the same about Clinton.

He won Democrats who thought the war in Iraq and health care were the most important issues, while Clinton won those who cared most about the economy.

She also did better than Obama among seniors. Clinton won working class voters, those making less than $50,000 in household income.

Obama largely won middle class and wealthy Democrats (although Clinton narrowly won those with $150,000 to $199,000 in family income).

With Obama remaining strong on the issues that won Iowa for him, Clinton’s margin among female voters decided New Hampshire in her favor.